Cemetery
Cemetery
By Patrick Sabatier
Liberation
Monday 16 August 2004
Najaf is far from Washington, and Ali's Tomb has nothing in common with the White House. Therefore it's tempting in the torpor of August to discount the fighting in Najaf, telling oneself that there is nothing new under the Iraqi sun and that the test of strength in Shi'ite country is unimportant - except for Najaf's residents who are caught in the crossfire between the militiamen and the Marines.
Ali's Tomb, however, is a powder keg that could produce an explosion that would definitively bury the fragile attempt to clear a political path towards reconstruction in Iraq, an attempt a first step of which is yesterday's Baghdad Conference. A Najaf explosion would certainly ruin George W. Bush's hope for a second term in the White House. Iraq's instability is already contributing to a rise in oil prices that is unwelcome for his chances. A real Shi'ite rebellion would swell the toll of American soldiers killed in combat, another fatal gauge of his reelection chances.
Hence coalition forces' procrastination from driving the "Mehdi Army" out of Ali's Tomb, which it has taken hostage. The Americans and their Iraqi allies don't know how to defuse the human bomb Moqtada's militias comprise without provoking an eruption. The assault on the tomb is therefore perhaps unlikely for tomorrow and negotiations continue behind the saber rattling and the gunfire.
It is, however, also risky to permit defiance of the authority of a government that already allows the Kurds to manage the north of the country and its Sunni enemies to reign in the center. To allow Moqtada to keep his grip on Najaf would turn the Baghdad power into an empty shell and would compel the United States to prolong an occupation that is very expensive for it, in dollars and in men.
That's why in either case Ali's Tomb could prove to be the cemetery of Bush's electoral ambitions.
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Translation: t r u t h o u t French language correspondent Leslie Thatcher.
By Patrick Sabatier
Liberation
Monday 16 August 2004
Najaf is far from Washington, and Ali's Tomb has nothing in common with the White House. Therefore it's tempting in the torpor of August to discount the fighting in Najaf, telling oneself that there is nothing new under the Iraqi sun and that the test of strength in Shi'ite country is unimportant - except for Najaf's residents who are caught in the crossfire between the militiamen and the Marines.
Ali's Tomb, however, is a powder keg that could produce an explosion that would definitively bury the fragile attempt to clear a political path towards reconstruction in Iraq, an attempt a first step of which is yesterday's Baghdad Conference. A Najaf explosion would certainly ruin George W. Bush's hope for a second term in the White House. Iraq's instability is already contributing to a rise in oil prices that is unwelcome for his chances. A real Shi'ite rebellion would swell the toll of American soldiers killed in combat, another fatal gauge of his reelection chances.
Hence coalition forces' procrastination from driving the "Mehdi Army" out of Ali's Tomb, which it has taken hostage. The Americans and their Iraqi allies don't know how to defuse the human bomb Moqtada's militias comprise without provoking an eruption. The assault on the tomb is therefore perhaps unlikely for tomorrow and negotiations continue behind the saber rattling and the gunfire.
It is, however, also risky to permit defiance of the authority of a government that already allows the Kurds to manage the north of the country and its Sunni enemies to reign in the center. To allow Moqtada to keep his grip on Najaf would turn the Baghdad power into an empty shell and would compel the United States to prolong an occupation that is very expensive for it, in dollars and in men.
That's why in either case Ali's Tomb could prove to be the cemetery of Bush's electoral ambitions.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Translation: t r u t h o u t French language correspondent Leslie Thatcher.
posted by R7 | 8/18/2004 01:45:00 AM
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