Keep Away From Washington

US Maverick Scholar Says Seouls Balancer Policy on Right Track


South Korea is right to distance itself from Washington to avoid ending up on the losing side in a new Cold War-like standoff between the United States and China, a renowned American expert on Northeast Asian politics advised.

Chalmers Johnson, author of ``Blowback: The Costs and Consequences of American Empire,¡¯¡¯ said President Roh Moo-hyun¡¯s pursuit of a foreign policy independent from South Korea¡¯s traditional ally, the U.S., will prove sensible in the long term.

``The danger today is to believe that the U.S. knows what it is doing and to take it seriously,¡¯¡¯ Johnson said during an interview with The Korea Times at his home near San Diego, Calif.

``It makes sense to me that under the Bush administration, Koreans would become more suspicious of Americans,¡¯¡¯ he said.

Johnson was commenting on what has become known as Roh¡¯s ``balancer policy,¡¯¡¯ a foreign affairs doctrine first outlined by the president in March under which Seoul seeks to become a mediator for the region¡¯s competing powers, particularly China and the U.S.-backed Japan.

The policy, a formalization of Roh¡¯s efforts to wind back the nation¡¯s 50-year military alliance with the U.S., has been labeled reckless and unrealistic by conservatives in Washington and Seoul.

But Johnson, who taught politics at the University of California, Berkeley and San Diego for three decades, said South Korea is wise to strengthen ties with an economically dynamic China rather than cling on to a declining U.S.

``South Korea has adjusted to China and realizes the U.S. is increasingly the old order,¡¯¡¯ he said. ``The U.S. and Japan are failing to adjust and proof of this is that they don¡¯t know what trouble they are in economically to compete with China.¡¯¡¯

Johnson was also highly skeptical that the emergence of a rich capitalist China poses a danger to South Korea and the rest of Northeast Asia.

``One of the stupidest thing in the world today is the attitude of the neo-conservatives in Washington that China is a threat,¡¯¡¯ the former Navy officer said. ``China is doing exactly what the U.S. has hoped it would do since the end of World War II.¡¯¡¯

Instead, he believed it is America¡¯s aggressive attitude toward the reforming communist nation, particularly its involvement in the dispute over Taiwanese independence, that is setting up a potential catastrophic military encounter. ``The U.S. would also probably not win the war _ it would be like Vietnam,¡¯¡¯ he said.

Johnson argued that while South Korea lacks the influence to act as a regional balancer now, a reunified Korean Peninsula could play an important stabilizing role in the future.

``I would agree with the conservatives in Korea if Roh sought to precipitately move out into a leadership role,¡¯¡¯ he said. ``But he is talking about something that will become realistic and it is good to see him talking in this way because in the past South Korean leaders talked like they were simply flunkeys of Washington.¡¯¡¯

Japan, on the other hand, is allowing itself to be pressured into discarding its pacifist constitution by the U.S. to act as a counterfoil against China, Johnson said.

``Japan spends a huge amount of money on its defense forces, although it¡¯s essentially a stealth operation,¡¯¡¯ he added. ``It has tied its future to the U.S. I believe that is very dangerous.¡¯¡¯

Johnson was also extremely critical of what he called Tokyo¡¯s attempts to whitewash atrocities committed in neighboring countries during World War II.

Lingering South Korean and Chinese resentment toward their former colonizer flared up earlier this year with Tokyo¡¯s approval of revisionist history textbooks.

``Japan is a bully and there is no way to accommodate a bully,¡¯¡¯ he said. ``You have to beat them back and that is what South Korea should continue to do.¡¯¡¯

Johnson gained the reputation as something of a maverick among U.S. foreign policy scholars following the publication of ``Blowback¡¯¡¯ and its sequel ``The Sorrows of Empire: Militarism, Secrecy and the End of The Republic.¡¯¡¯

In them, he argues that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, an unchecked U.S. has transformed, unbeknownst to its own people, from a democratic republic into a militaristic empire and is now headed toward collapse.

During the two-hour interview, Johnson said that the U.S. is responsible for the deepening standoff over North Korea¡¯s nuclear weapons programs.

``The North Koreans are defending themselves,¡¯¡¯ he said, describing U.S. President George W. Bush¡¯s ``axis of evil¡¯¡¯ speech as a direct threat to the regime. ``I think they have accurately determined that the only way to dissuade the U.S. is to deter them by becoming a nuclear power.¡¯¡¯

Johnson applauded South Korea¡¯s policy of reconciliation toward the North, saying that if the U.S. adopted a similar stance, the nuclear dispute would quickly resolve.

``Do not overstate the power of North Korea: it is a failed economy that is behaving like a cornered rat,¡¯¡¯ he said. ``What¡¯s called for is a magnanimous gesture on the part of the victors, that is, the U.S. and South Korea.¡¯¡¯

But Johnson was pessimistic about the standoff being defused. ``It¡¯s important that the people of Northeast Asia know where the problem lies, though,¡¯¡¯ he said. ``It¡¯s not in Beijing and it¡¯s not in Pyongyang, it¡¯s in Washington and Tokyo.

Chalmers Johnson
Reuben Staines, Kim Seung-il
Staff Reporter, Hankook Ilbo Correspondent
rjs@koreatimes.co.kr